Petrol ₦617/L·FX ₦1,580/$·MPR 26.25%·Street inflation 38.7%·CBN CPI 33.2%·Gap: +5.5pp·Wage deficit ₦1,840/day·NaijaGDP 42.1 — Stressed·
Petrol ₦617/L·FX ₦1,580/$·MPR 26.25%·Street inflation 38.7%·CBN CPI 33.2%·Gap: +5.5pp·Wage deficit ₦1,840/day·NaijaGDP 42.1 — Stressed·
NaijaGDP score
42.1
↓ -3.2 this month
Street inflation
38.7%
↑ vs CBN 33.2%
Daily wage deficit
-₦1,840
↓ Widening
Petrol / litre
₦617
→ Stable ±1%
FX rate
₦1,580
↑ +2.1% MoM
Composite NaijaGDP score — Jan 2023 baseline = 10042.1 / 100
0 Crisis25 Stressed50 Neutral75 Stable100 Thriving
0–35 Crisis
36–50 Stressed
51–65 Neutral
66–100 Stable / Thriving
● Currently: Stressed zone
Macro drivers
Petrol pump price
₦617/L
↑ +125% since Jan 2023
Fastest-acting driver. Reaches mobility & survival costs within days. Upstream cause: FX depreciation.
USD / NGN rate
₦1,580/$
↑ +210% since Jan 2023
The root driver. Petrol is dollar-priced. Imports are dollar-denominated. FX moves everything else.
CBN monetary policy rate
26.25%
↑ +1,475bps since Jan 2023
Slowest-acting driver. Squeezes trader credit, takes 4–8 weeks to reach market prices.
Street indices
Index scores vs Jan 2023 baselineAll declining
Market basket38.4-22pp
Mobility cost44.8-16pp
Survival stack39.1-21pp
Rent pressure35.6-24pp
Street wage gap41.2-19pp
NaijaGDP score — 12 monthsDeclining
Street index vs official CBN CPI — the divergence+5.5pp gap
NaijaStreetIndex
CBN official CPI
Gap = what Nigerians actually feel vs what is reported
City comparison — street index scoreWeek 21
Lagos
38
38
Kano
52
52
Abuja
34
34
Port Harcourt
47
47
Ibadan
55
55
This week — Week 21, 20257 signals
Tomato prices surge 41% — Benue flooding cuts supply to southern markets
Market basket · Lagos, Ibadan · 2 days ago · Macro cause: supply shock (climate)
Generator fuel now 45% of daily income for low-wage Lagos earners
Survival stack · Lagos · 3 days ago · Macro cause: FX depreciation → petrol price
Egg prices dip 4% — Ogun poultry farms increase output after feed subsidy
Market basket · Nationwide · 4 days ago · Macro cause: targeted subsidy policy
Danfo fares up ₦50 across Lagos routes — drivers cite fuel and spare parts
Mobility cost · Lagos · 5 days ago · Macro cause: FX → petrol → fares (1–2wk lag)
CBN CPI April: 33.2% vs NaijaStreetIndex reading of 38.7% — gap widens to 5.5pp
Macro vs micro · Nigeria · 6 days ago · The divergence is the story
MPR at 26.25% drying up trader credit — market women report smaller stock, higher margins
Market basket · Kano, Lagos · 6 days ago · Macro cause: CBN rate hike → credit squeeze (4–8wk lag)
₦70,000 minimum wage not reflected in informal sector — daily workers still earning ₦4,000/day
Street wage · Nationwide · 1 week ago · Macro cause: policy on paper, unenforced in practice
Petrol pump price
₦617/L
↑ +125% since Jan 2023
Fastest-acting driver. Mobility & survival costs follow within days. Root cause is FX.
USD / NGN rate
₦1,580/$
↑ +210% since Jan 2023
The root driver behind petrol. Sits above all other drivers in the transmission chain.
CBN MPR
26.25%
↑ +1,475bps since Jan 2023
Slowest-acting. Squeezes trader credit, takes 4–8 weeks to show in market prices.
Petrol price — correlation with each index
| Index | Correlation | Transmission lag | Plain English |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility cost | 0.94 | 1–2 weeks | Danfo drivers reprice within days of any pump price change |
| Survival stack | 0.91 | Same week | Generator fuel is petrol — passes through immediately |
| Market basket | 0.78 | 2–4 weeks | Transport costs on supply chains add a delay before food prices move |
| Street wage gap | 0.62 | 4–8 weeks | Fuel raises cost of going to work before wages can adjust |
| Rent pressure | 0.28 | 6–12 months | Rent is sticky — landlords adjust annually, not with pump prices |
Petrol price vs mobility cost index — 12 months (1–2 week lag visible)
Current price
₦617/L
Stable ±1% this week
Jan 2023 price
₦195/L
Pre-subsidy removal
Price change
+₦422
+216% absolute
Fastest impact on
Danfo
1–2 week lag
Petrol price trend — indexed to Jan 2023
What petrol price moves — and how fast
Generator fuel (same-day)Survival stackImmediate
Danfo faresMobility cost1–2 weeks
Food transport chainsMarket basket2–4 weeks
Cost of going to workWage gap4–8 weeks
Construction materialsRent pressure6–12 months
Current rate
₦1,580/$
↑ +2.1% MoM
Jan 2023 rate
₦461/$
Pre-float
Change
+₦1,119
+243% absolute
Strongest impact on
Survival
1–3 week lag
FX rate — indexed to Jan 2023
Why FX is the root driver
Petrol is priced in dollars globally. When the naira depreciates, NNPC/importers pay more dollars — that cost passes through to pump prices, which then ripple into fares, generator costs, and food supply chain costs.
Independently, most imported goods (packaging, raw materials, spare parts, electronics) are priced in dollars. FX depreciation adds a markup to almost every category in the market basket without passing through petrol at all.
Independently, most imported goods (packaging, raw materials, spare parts, electronics) are priced in dollars. FX depreciation adds a markup to almost every category in the market basket without passing through petrol at all.
Current MPR
26.25%
Unchanged last MPC
Jan 2023 MPR
11.5%
Pre-tightening cycle
Change
+14.75pp
Fastest hike cycle on record
Strongest impact on
Basket
4–8 week lag
MPR — how high rates reach the market stall
High MPR means banks charge more for loans. Small traders who rely on short-term credit to restock goods face higher borrowing costs — or can no longer access credit at all. The result: smaller stock quantities, less price competition, and higher margins charged to buyers. This effect typically takes 4–8 weeks to appear in observed market prices.
A second channel: SME employers squeezed by loan repayments slow down hiring or reduce wages — widening the street wage gap over a 6–12 week horizon.
A second channel: SME employers squeezed by loan repayments slow down hiring or reduce wages — widening the street wage gap over a 6–12 week horizon.
Grains & staples+19%
Garri (1kg)₦950+28%
Rice, local (1kg)₦1,400+22%
Yam (1 tuber)₦2,200+15%
Beans (1kg)₦1,100+18%
Semovita (1kg)₦900+12%
ProteinsMixed
Egg (crate, 30)₦3,800-4%
Chicken (1kg)₦4,500+20%
Beef (1kg)₦5,200+16%
Fish, tilapia (1kg)₦3,200+11%
Stockfish (small)₦2,800+9%
Produce & oils+24%
Tomatoes (basket)₦6,500+41%
Palm oil (1 litre)₦2,100+15%
Onion (medium bag)₦5,000+30%
Vegetable oil (1L)₦1,800+10%
Pepper (tatashe)₦3,500+38%
Bread & packaged+16%
Bread (800g loaf)₦1,200+18%
Indomie (pack)₦250+25%
Sachet water (bag)₦200+33%
Bottled water (75cl)₦250+25%
Milk, Peak (tin)₦1,100+10%
Basket price trend
Daily commute avg
₦820
↑ +₦120 MoM
% of daily wage
19.4%
↑ Up from 14%
Danfo avg
₦250
↑ +25%
BRT Lagos
₦160
Stable
Fare tracker by mode
Danfo (avg route)₦250+25%
BRT Lagos₦160Stable
Keke (short trip)₦300+20%
Okada (within city)₦500+25%
Bolt / Uber avg₦2,400+30%
Intercity (LOS–IBD)₦4,500+28%
Daily commute cost trend
City mobility burden
Lagos
₦820
Daily avg
19.4%
% of wage
High
Burden
Abuja
₦950
Daily avg
16.2%
% of wage
Medium
Burden
Kano
₦380
Daily avg
11.2%
% of wage
Low
Burden
Port Harcourt
₦640
Daily avg
14.8%
% of wage
Medium
Burden
Ibadan
₦420
Daily avg
10.5%
% of wage
Low
Burden
Daily survival cost
₦5,420
↑ +₦480 MoM
Gen fuel / day
₦3,700
↑ +8%
Data bundle (1GB)
₦400
↑ +33%
LPG gas (12kg)
₦14,500
↑ +19%
Utility cost tracker
Generator fuel / day (6hrs)₦3,700+8%
Data bundle (1GB, MTN)₦400+33%
Airtime (MTN / Airtel)₦200Stable
PHCN token (100 kWh)₦22,500+12%
LPG gas (12kg refill)₦14,500+19%
Survival stack trend
% of daily wage consumed by survival stackCritical
Generator fuel
71%
Data / airtime
12%
PHCN / power
18%
Based on ₦5,200 avg daily wage. Generator fuel alone exceeds the minimum wage daily equivalent.
Daily survival need
₦10,340
↑ +₦980 MoM
Artisan daily wage
₦8,500
↑ +5%
Trader daily earn
₦6,200
↓ -3%
Daily wage gap
-₦1,840
Worst since Jan 2023
Earnings by occupation vs daily need
Artisan (plumber/electrician)
₦8,500
Market trader
₦6,200
Gig / delivery rider
₦5,800
Casual / daily labour
₦4,000
Domestic worker
₦3,300
Daily survival need
₦10,340
Wage gap trend — 12 months
Lagos mainland avg
₦420k
↑ +35% YoY
% of annual wage
52%
Up from 38%
Most affordable
Kano
₦120k/yr avg
Least affordable
Lagos VI
₦1.8M+/yr
1-bedroom annual rent vs wage affordability
Lagos Island
₦1.8M+
Per year
220%
% of wage
Crisis
Status
Lagos Mainland
₦420k
Per year
52%
% of wage
Stressed
Status
Abuja Maitama
₦2.4M+
Per year
293%
% of wage
Crisis
Status
Abuja Karu
₦280k
Per year
34%
% of wage
Moderate
Status
Kano
₦120k
Per year
15%
% of wage
Affordable
Status
Ibadan
₦150k
Per year
18%
% of wage
Affordable
Status
Current composite score42.1 / 100
0 Crisis2550 Neutral75100 Thriving
Current zone: Stressed — Most Nigerians spend more than they earn on basic daily survival. Real purchasing power down 31% since Jan 2023 baseline.
Index weights — how the composite score is built
Market basket
35%
Mobility cost
20%
Survival stack
20%
Rent pressure
15%
Street wage gap
10%
Score history — 12 months
Street index vs official CPI
1. The core thesis
NaijaStreetIndex exists to answer one question: does macro policy actually reach the micro economy, how, and how fast?
Official indices (NBS CPI, CBN reports) measure what should affect people. NaijaStreetIndex measures what actually affects people at street level. The divergence between the two — currently +5.5pp on inflation — is not a rounding error. It is policy blindness made visible.
The product is built around the framework: match affected micro factors to their corresponding macro variables in plain, relatable language. Not "monetary policy tightening" — but "your provision store trader can no longer get cheap credit to restock, so your garri costs more."
Official indices (NBS CPI, CBN reports) measure what should affect people. NaijaStreetIndex measures what actually affects people at street level. The divergence between the two — currently +5.5pp on inflation — is not a rounding error. It is policy blindness made visible.
The product is built around the framework: match affected micro factors to their corresponding macro variables in plain, relatable language. Not "monetary policy tightening" — but "your provision store trader can no longer get cheap credit to restock, so your garri costs more."
2. The macro → micro transmission chain
Every number we publish traces back to a macro cause. The three primary drivers and how they reach the street:
FX
USD/NGN depreciation → petrol price → everything. Petrol is dollar-priced globally. Naira depreciation means NNPC/importers pay more, pass through to pump, which ripples into danfo fares (1–2 weeks), generator costs (same week), food supply chain transport (2–4 weeks). FX is the root driver behind all others.
MPR
CBN rate hike → credit squeeze → market prices. Higher MPR means banks charge more. Traders lose access to working capital. Smaller stock, less competition, higher margins. Takes 4–8 weeks to appear in observed prices. Second channel: SME employers cut wages or slow hiring, widening the street wage gap over 6–12 weeks.
CPI
Official CPI basket (designed 2009) vs what people actually buy today. NBS measures a basket that doesn't include generator fuel, data bundles, or the specific market configurations of 2025. Our basket is updated every 6 months. The divergence between our reading and theirs is published weekly — it is itself a data point.
3. Data sources
The framework: leverage publicly available macro data, aggregate micro data from business/economic news sites, validate with anchor reporters on the ground.
Macro sources (public, scraped weekly)
CBN — MPR, FX rates, M2 money supply
NBS — CPI, food inflation, GDP data
NMDPRA — petrol pump prices weekly
DMO — debt stock, external reserves
NGX — equities, bond yields
Micro sources (news aggregation + reporters)
BusinessDay — commodity prices
Nairametrics — market data
Stears — economic analysis
3 anchor reporters (Lagos, Kano, Abuja)
Photo-verified prices, same stall, same day
4. Basket specification
Every item has an exact specification to ensure comparability across cities and time. Vagueness kills the index.
| Item | Specification | Collection rule |
|---|---|---|
| Rice | 1kg Mama Gold parboiled, open market | Cash price, median of 3+ stalls |
| Danfo fare | Single trip, Oshodi–CMS route, Lagos | Peak hours 7–9am, cash only |
| Petrol | 1 litre, NNPC filling station pump price | Monday morning reading |
| Data bundle | 1GB MTN bundle, retail price | Sunday collection |
| Rent | 1-room self-contain, running water, no furniture | Verified landlord asking price, annual |
We publish the full basket specification document. Every item, every unit, every collection rule. Reproducible by design.
5. Index construction — the formula
Base period: January 2023, pre-fuel subsidy removal. Set to 100. All readings are relative to this moment.
Sub-index formula: (Current price / Jan 2023 price) × 100, normalised to 0–100 floor/ceiling.
Composite NaijaGDP score: Σ(sub-index × weight), published weekly.
Sub-index formula: (Current price / Jan 2023 price) × 100, normalised to 0–100 floor/ceiling.
Composite NaijaGDP score: Σ(sub-index × weight), published weekly.
| Index | Weight | Weight bar | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market basket | 35% | Largest share of household expenditure | |
| Mobility cost | 20% | Daily, unavoidable cost for most workers | |
| Survival stack | 20% | Off-grid Nigeria makes this essential, not optional | |
| Rent pressure | 15% | Housing as % of income; sticky but compounding | |
| Street wage gap | 10% | Outcome measure; weighted lower as it's derived from above |
6. Story-first editorial model
The principle: the story you want to tell drives which metrics you build. We don't publish a data dump and hope someone finds the story. We lead with the story, then show the data behind it.
Each week one headline story anchors the data: "Benue flooding created a tomato shock felt 600km away in Lagos — in 5 days." The index then explains how it happened (supply chain disruption), how fast it spread (5–7 day lag), and what official data will show (in 30 days, if at all).
The divergence from official data is always part of the story. When our street reading is 5.5pp above CBN CPI, that gap has a name: policy blindness. We say so, plainly.
Each week one headline story anchors the data: "Benue flooding created a tomato shock felt 600km away in Lagos — in 5 days." The index then explains how it happened (supply chain disruption), how fast it spread (5–7 day lag), and what official data will show (in 30 days, if at all).
The divergence from official data is always part of the story. When our street reading is 5.5pp above CBN CPI, that gap has a name: policy blindness. We say so, plainly.
7. Sampling rules & bias controls
Same markets, same day, same time — every week. No substitutions.
• Minimum 3 price observations per item per city before publishing.
• Publish the median, not the mean — protects against outlier manipulation.
• Reporters do not see last week's prices before collecting this week's — prevents anchoring bias.
• If an item is genuinely unavailable due to scarcity, that scarcity is the data point. We do not skip it.
• Urban bias watch: Kano, Maiduguri, Owerri are deliberate inclusions. Lagos does not dominate.
• Minimum 3 price observations per item per city before publishing.
• Publish the median, not the mean — protects against outlier manipulation.
• Reporters do not see last week's prices before collecting this week's — prevents anchoring bias.
• If an item is genuinely unavailable due to scarcity, that scarcity is the data point. We do not skip it.
• Urban bias watch: Kano, Maiduguri, Owerri are deliberate inclusions. Lagos does not dominate.
8. Revision cadence
| Action | Frequency |
|---|---|
| Price data collection | Weekly |
| Sub-index & composite score publication | Weekly (every Monday) |
| Basket composition review | Every 6 months |
| Weight rebalancing | Annually |
| Base period rebasing | Every 3–5 years |
9. Our commitments
• Raw data published every week as open CSV and JSON. No paywall. No embargo.
• Named markets — we say which stall in which market, not just which city.
• Photo-verified prices from anchor reporters with every collection.
• Version-controlled methodology on GitHub — every basket or weight change is documented.
• Independent — not affiliated with NBS, CBN, or any government body.
• Named markets — we say which stall in which market, not just which city.
• Photo-verified prices from anchor reporters with every collection.
• Version-controlled methodology on GitHub — every basket or weight change is documented.
• Independent — not affiliated with NBS, CBN, or any government body.
Base URL
https://api.naijastreetindex.com/v1All endpoints return JSON. Auth via bearer token. Free tier: 1,000 requests/day. Raw CSV also available at
https://data.naijastreetindex.com/weeklyEndpoints
GET/scoreCurrent composite NaijaGDP score + zone
GET/driversAll macro driver values (petrol, FX, MPR)
GET/basketFull market basket prices + % changes
GET/basket?city=lagosCity-filtered basket
GET/mobilityTransport fare index by city
GET/wageStreet wage vs daily survival cost gap
GET/correlation?driver=petrol&index=mobilityCorrelation coefficient + lag estimate
GET/history?index=score&range=12mHistorical time series
POST/reportSubmit crowd-sourced price observation
Example response — /score
{
"score": 42.1,
"zone": "stressed",
"week": "2025-W21",
"base_period": "2023-01",
"delta_mom": -3.2,
"drivers": {
"petrol_ngn_litre": 617,
"usd_ngn": 1580,
"cbm_mpr_pct": 26.25
},
"indices": {
"basket": 38.4,
"mobility": 44.8,
"survival": 39.1,
"rent": 35.6,
"wage_gap": 41.2
}
}